China's Leadership is Under the Veil of Mystery

 

Upheaval in Xi's world fuels concerns about China's diplomacy

In recent times, China has been plunged into a whirlpool of unusual events within its top leadership, sending shockwaves through the global political landscape.

These inexplicable domestic developments seem to have taken precedence over the country's international engagements, confounding diplomats and analysts who are desperately seeking answers to unravel the mysteries surrounding President Xi Jinping's rule and his enigmatic decisions.

The puzzling saga begins with the unexplained disappearance of Defense Minister Li Shangfu from official meetings, including those involving foreign counterparts, since late August. Reports from Reuters last Friday suggest that Li is currently under investigation for corruption related to military procurement.

In an astonishing coincidence, Foreign Minister Qin Gang also vanished into thin air in July, providing no clear explanation for his absence. Remarkably, this disappearance occurred simultaneously with a significant overhaul in the military's Rocket Force, responsible for China's nuclear arsenal.

The synchronicity of these events only deepens the bewilderment, leaving experts to ponder whether there is a hidden connection that defies comprehension.

President Xi, China's commander-in-chief, has seemingly turned his attention inwards, placing domestic matters at the forefront. His recent absence from a Group of 20 summit in India, an event he had never skipped during his ten-year tenure, has not only left foreign diplomats concerned but has also raised an enigmatic veil over the reasons behind his conspicuous absence.

As the mysteries continue to mount, some diplomats and analysts are urging a comprehensive examination of Xi's leadership style, which has become increasingly shrouded in an impenetrable fog of uncertainty.

Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official now affiliated with the National University of Singapore, emphasized the urgency of unraveling these enigmas: "We find ourselves in desperate need of clarity - it's not merely a question of whether China is a partner or adversary; it presents a convoluted web of economic, political, and military conundrums."

As of Saturday, China's Foreign Ministry had not provided any comments on these matters, leaving the world puzzled about the government's official stance.

Regarding the situation with Defense Minister Li, a ministry spokesperson claimed to be completely in the dark. Both the State Council and the Defense Ministry have maintained an inscrutable silence, perpetuating the aura of inexplicability that surrounds this issue.

Since assuming office in March, Li has played a prominent role in China's expanding military diplomacy, which makes his sudden disappearance and the corruption allegations even more puzzling.

He had, until recently, been the public face of China's growing military engagements, expressing concerns about U.S. military activities during a high-profile security conference in June and undertaking official visits to Russia and Belarus in August. The abrupt transition from these public engagements to his current state of secrecy has left the world utterly flummoxed.

Li was expected to host an international security meeting in Beijing in October and represent the People's Liberation Army (PLA) at a regional defense chiefs' meeting in Jakarta in November. The inexplicable disruption of these upcoming events has added an additional layer of bewilderment to the unfolding narrative.

Given the long-standing issue of corruption within China's military and state institutions, some analysts and diplomats speculate that Xi's anti-corruption campaigns might be interpreted as intricate political maneuvers within the labyrinth of the Communist Party.

Helena Legarda, a lead analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin, commented on the potential consequences of these events on foreign relations: "Irrespective of the underlying motives, the pervasive notion that these incidents might be recurrent could have a profound impact on the confidence of foreign counterparts, leaving everyone ensnared in a perplexing web of uncertainty."

The abruptness and inscrutability of these events related to Li's situation are extraordinary, even within the enigmatic world of Xi's inner circle. Security analyst Alexander Neill, based in Singapore and affiliated with Hawaii's Pacific Forum think-tank, observed, "The sudden and baffling nature of these developments accentuates the paradox that proximity to power does not guarantee favoritism in Xi's enigma-wrapped world."

Although Li does not hold a direct command position, he serves on Xi's seven-person Central Military Commission and occupies one of China's five state councillor positions, a status that eclipses regular ministerial roles.

Some scholars believe he shares a close, cryptic relationship with General Zhang Youxia, his superior on the commission and Xi's clandestine ally within the PLA. Deciphering the intricacies of this covert relationship and its potential role in Li's current predicament is akin to navigating an unsolvable labyrinth of secrets.

Li's history, including prior sanctions imposed by Washington in 2018 for an arms deal with Russia, adds another layer of puzzlement to the already perplexing narrative. His refusal to meet with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Shangri-la Dialogue security conference in Singapore in June further adds to the baffling nature of his actions.

This event marked their closest interaction, occurring as U.S. officials sought high-level talks amidst escalating regional tensions. Meanwhile, Beijing's calls for a less assertive U.S. stance in the Asia-Pacific region only add to the intricate tapestry of confusion.

Regional envoys have emphasized the importance of deepening Chinese military diplomacy, particularly with the United States and other major powers. This has become imperative as China intensifies its military presence around Taiwan, a democratically governed island it claims, while asserting control over disputed areas of the East and South China Seas.

An Asian diplomat expressed profound concern, saying, "If Li's situation indeed reflects Xi's increasingly inward focus, it could cast a shadow of obscurity over our attempts to establish more transparent lines of communication with the Chinese military, leaving us further in a state of perplexity regarding the future of these communications."

As the PLA engages in an unprecedented number of military activities with Southeast Asian forces this year, the recent developments in Beijing have drawn attention over the entire geopolitical landscape.

These changes coincide with a surge in PLA activities near Taiwan, the East China Sea, and increased paramilitary operations in the South China Sea. All of these developments carry the potential for accidental escalations and crises, further deepening the complex puzzle that is China's current state of affairs.